State of the AL East: Three contenders vie to unseat the Rays atop the division (2024)

The demise of the American League East has been greatly exaggerated. Perhaps it doesn’t have the same cachet it boasted roughly a decade ago, when Yankee-Red Sox wars were still so heated, the Rays had become a relevant upstart power, and the Orioles and Jays both routinely fielded dangerous squads. But this year’s AL East still claims the league’s top team, and three others who could easily snag playoff spots. Only the Orioles are also-rans, and we knew that coming into the year. This division remains not for the faint-of-heart.

What have the first 60 games shown us about these teams, especially the contenders? What has brought each team to this point, who will reload at the trade deadline, and perhaps most importantly, who will take the division? Our AL East beat writers (with the assistance of fill-in man Eno Sarris) broke down the division team by team to assess what’s happened so far, and what’s coming next.

Briefly explain how the team you cover found themselves in their current situation.

Chad Jennings (Red Sox): They have five solid starting pitchers (shockingly, last year’s attempt at a two-man rotation didn’t work, for some reason), and they have four legitimately good hitters at a time when most teams are struggling to find more than two. Oh, and it turns out Matt Barnes can be a really good closer. There’s no individual Red Sox player who’s all that surprising, but the collective whole is better than expected. Some bullpen pieces and bottom-of-the-order hitters have been inconsistent, but those are manageable and typical problems. For the most part, the Red Sox have been healthy, and their best players have performed. That’s been enough to keep them in the mix; not a juggernaut but certainly competitive.

Eno Sarris (Rays): The short-term veterans — and, really, any veteran ballplayer is on a short-term lease in Tampa — held serve early, and now the parade of youth is beginning in Tampa. The Rays have used their collection of arms to suppress offense at the third-best rate in the American League, as per usual, and they even just added two more relievers with great vertical movement and extension (two things the Rays love) to the pile. The offense hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been offensive either, ranking in the top half thanks to patience and power.

Dan Connolly (Orioles): They have stunk because winning at the major-league level is not currently a focus with this team. The front office likes to point to the minors, where three of the organization’s four affiliates have started out really hot. Although they’ll never say the Orioles are an afterthought, the reality is the big-league team is still being used to supplement the compiling of inventory in the minors. So, the additions this offseason — Freddy Galvis, Maikel Franco, Matt Harvey — were as much (honestly, more) about potential deadline trade chips as they were helping Orioles manager Brandon Hyde and his staff win ballgames.

Kaitlyn McGrath (Blue Jays): The Blue Jays are in the thick of the division race, but it feels like they haven’t peaked yet. Like many clubs, injuries hit Toronto hard to start the season — most notably, George Springer has been on the IL for all but four games. Even without him, the Blue Jays have been one of the best offences, thanks a lot to the top of their lineup, especially Marcus Semien and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The starting rotation has been a work in progress. At some points, the club was running out a two- or three-man rotation, because of injury and/or underperformance, but with the emergence of rookie Alek Manoah and the resurgence of Ross Stripling, they finally have five starters. The bullpen has been a Jekyll and Hyde situation — sparkling in April and faltering in May. Injuries have played a role there, too. The Blue Jays have held their own despite a tough schedule and if they can get healthy, they’re a threat in the division — if not to win it, at least to claim a wild card.

Adler (Yankees): Great question. Can someone email me if they know the answer?

Really though, it depends on which spot we’re talking about. If we’re talking about how they still have a record above .500, it’s because of the excellent starting pitching and a few weeks of a timely hit or two in low-score games. If we’re talking about how they have a nearly comatose offense despite having some of the best hitters in MLB, it’s the billion-dollar question. It’s a team built to hit home runs, and instead they’re trying to string together hits and manufacture runs — but they’ve also been a shockingly bad baserunning team, too. Aaron Judge is the only player who has played pretty consistently this season. If they don’t hit for power, they’re not going to do all that well in this competitive AL East.

What’s been your team’s most pleasant surprise?

Jennings (Red Sox): Maybe Barnes in the ninth inning? The Red Sox came into this season without a proven closer, but they’ve had one of the best closers in the game thanks to Barnes throwing more strikes than ever before. Also Nick Pivetta as the No. 5 starter. He’s not an ace or anything, but he’s been plenty good enough to solidify the rotation and give it some length. I don’t know if J.D. Martinez’s bounceback counts as a surprise, but it’s certainly been pleasant. Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock might have been the No. 1 answer in April, but he’s come back to Earth just enough to become No. 4 on this list. Of all the surprises, the most difficult to pinpoint, but perhaps the most important, might be the team’s health.

Sarris (Rays): Can this be a tie? On the pitching staff, the answer is old man Rich Hill, who has continued to climb the mountain and pump out great starts despite being the oldest pitcher in the big leagues by nearly two full years. “Has curveball, will travel” says the license plate on the junker that just dropped 13 strikeouts on the Royals and blanked the Yankees in New York. But Joey Wendle deserves some love too, as the jack of all trades added some power to his batted balls this year and finds himself (by Wins Above Replacement at least) as a top-20 player so far in the American League. He’s been an extreme glue guy for a Rays team with a lot of moving parts.

Connolly (Orioles): It’s been threefold. The most inspirational is first baseman Trey Mancini, who had colon cancer surgery in March 2020, basically picked up where he left off in 2019 and has been one of the AL leaders in RBIs this season. Lefty John Means has taken the next step from good pitcher to potential ace. And center fielder Cedric Mullins has stepped up his offensive game while continuing to provide outstanding defense in center field. The bullpen initially was a pleasant surprise, but it’s been taxed by a rotation that doesn’t get very deep into games.

McGrath (Blue Jays): A case could be made for a few. After a slow start, Semien has been putting up numbers similar to his breakout 2019 campaign. The Blue Jays one-year investment looks like a good one. On the pitching side, Steven Matz and Robbie Ray have rebounded nicely from career-worst 2020 seasons. Ray, in particular, has so far corrected the wayward command issues that previously plagued him, maintaining 2.33 walks per nine. But Guerrero’s emergence as a superstar has been the story of the year. Maybe it’s a stretch to call it a pleasant surprise since Guerrero was the top prospect two years ago when he debuted, so it shouldn’t be a surprise. But after an offseason physical transformation, Guerrero went from an average-ish player in his first two seasons to one of the game’s best hitters and a Gold Glove candidate at first base. He’s finally living up to the hype. It’s been fun to watch.

Adler (Yankees): The pitching has been great. Corey Kluber was definitely the most pleasant surprise for the couple of weeks when he was really pitching well before he strained his shoulder. The Yankees have not been built for pitching in recent years and it was their biggest assumed weakness heading into the season. Despite having minimal run support most nights, a variety of guys have been pitching their asses off.

What is holding your team back?

Jennings (Red Sox): The Red Sox have been one of baseball’s best offensive teams, but with a runner at third and less than two outs, they’ve been one of the worst — near the bottom in both batting average and OPS in those crucial situations. And that’s something manager Alex Cora has stressed since spring training. It’s a flaw that’s cost them. They’re still looking for reliable hitters beyond their Big 4 (though Hunter Renfroe has filled that void lately), and they don’t have an ace (though Nathan Eovaldi has been sharp, and Eduardo Rodriguez looked like his old self this weekend). Like most teams, they could still use another reliever. They’d also like to have someone take hold of the leadoff spot.

Sarris (Rays): They still strike out too much. Since the beginning of 2020, only the Tigers have struck out more often than the Rays, and that’s meaningful in the postseason, when team strikeout rate at the plate predicted every postseason series last year … save the ones the Rays were in. The good news is that the two remaining top prospects who could come up this year, Wander Franco and Vidal Bruján, should both make contact at an above-average rate. That could be a real boost to the offense.

Connolly (Orioles): Reality. This was never supposed to be a contender in 2021 and they proved that majestically with a recent 14-game losing streak, tied for second-longest in modern franchise history (behind only the infamous 0-21 start in 1988). They have a lot of inexperienced players who make physical and mental mistakes, and they have young pitchers trying to learn at the highest level. Most of these players on the roster will not be in Baltimore in three years or so when the club hopes to be contending for the playoffs.

McGrath (Blue Jays): It feels like an excuse because all teams deal with it, but it’s injuries. The Blue Jays have had 25 players hit the IL, tied for the most in baseball. Their cumulative 667 days lost to injury is the fourth-highest. Springer has been the most significant to navigate, but they’ve also been without offensively inclined catcher Alejandro Kirk since early May and Cavan Biggio has been sidelined for the last two weeks. The bottom of the lineup has had to rely on bench depth that’s had a hard time consistently turning it back to the top of the order. The rotation has been spared of significant injuries so far, but the bullpen alone has seen 12 relievers hit the IL. Toronto needs some of its hard throwers, like Julian Merryweather, Ryan Borucki and Patrick Murphy, back soon.

Adler (Yankees): The lack of offensive power. Aaron Judge is the only hitter with a slugging percentage above .500. Most of their lineup — including Gary Sánchez and Gleyber Torres — have slugging percentages in the .300s. Driving the ball would fix a lot of their problems. It’d drive in more runners, it’d honestly negate some of their issues with baserunning, it’d allow them to put up big innings and loosen up in a game. This team was built around home runs. Where are they?

Looking ahead to the trade deadline, do you think your team will be buyers or sellers? If buyers, what do they need most? If sellers, who is likely to be dealt?

Jennings (Red Sox): They should be good enough to buy, but it’s hard to know whether chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will be willing to make a win-now move. It doesn’t seem to be his style to go after a rental unless it costs him next to nothing, but if he could get a player with some additional years of control, then he might be onto something. Chris Sale is a second-half X-factor. If he returns from Tommy John, he could meaningfully upgrade the top of the rotation. The most interesting addition could be center field prospect Jarren Duran. The Red Sox have tried Franchy Cordero, and now they’re trying Danny Santana, but if they think Duran is ready, he could be as important as any trade acquisition.

Sarris (Rays): Ha! The Rays will both buy and sell, obviously, or do nothing, because why don’t you try to predict what they’ll do successfully! They moved early on buying relievers because they had other shortstops to play and also because everyone on the market will be looking for relievers later. If something happens in the rotation, they could acquire a few starter innings to get them to the postseason. Offense, particularly with good contact rates, might be a target —but they have that internally, too. OK, I’ve convinced myself that they’ll acquire, like, Matt Harvey, call up the kids, and get the rotation lined up and rested for the postseason.

Connolly (Orioles): Sellers. They’ll again be baseball’s flea market if any team bites. There’s a dilemma here in Baltimore, however. They’d love to sell off some of their veterans for more minor-league lottery tickets — Matt Harvey, Galvis, Franco, potentially solid lefty Paul Fry — if given the opportunity. But their real trade chips are Mancini, a free-agent after 2022; Means, a free agent after 2024; and outfielder Anthony Santander, also a free agent after 2024. Each comes with a public relations price, however. Mancini is beloved in Baltimore, and rightfully so. Means is arguably the first homegrown potential ace since Mike Mussina. And Santander is only 26. Santander is the most likely to be dealt if a good package comes along. But general manager Mike Elias will have to listen to all offers on everyone since his focus is on the future.

McGrath (Blue Jays): Barring a total collapse, the Blue Jays will be buyers — but selective buyers. The Jays are still a young team that’s still in the rising portion of their upswing, so they’re not in a position to push in all the chips, like the 2015 team did. Ideally, the front office can trade for players with control, but a few affordable rentals — especially relievers — would make sense, too. Their moves for Ray and Taijuan Walker last year could be the model. Their primary need is pitching, both starting and relieving. Another strong bat for the bench would be an asset. Third base is another position they could look for, but it feels like pitching will be more of a priority.

Adler (Yankees): It feels like it is saying a lot that I don’t know. They need center field depth and a left-hander, but the larger existential question is: Who are the one or two pieces that would unlock this team’s potential? In recent years, they’ve needed pitching. I have to think June would have to go very poorly for them to start moving guys.

Forecast the next 60 or so games for your club.

Jennings (Red Sox): This should be when the Red Sox will prove themselves one way or the other. They just went on the road to play the Astros and Yankees, and up next they have the Astros at home, then the Blue Jays, and a week later, the Rays and Yankees (again). My guess is they’ll keep their head above water through this stretch. Their weaknesses could be exposed, but they seem steady enough to keep moving forward. At some point, their depth has to become a more important factor than it’s been up to this point. My prediction for the next 60 or so games: At some point, someone like Duran or Tanner Houck or Connor Seabold will become legitimately important and have a say in whether the Red Sox keep pace.

Sarris (Rays): By projections, this pitching staff is supposed to regress and the Rays fall back to the pack by allowing more runs. But this has been an elite run-suppression team, and I’m not sure projections are giving enough innings (and credit) to starters like Shane McClanahan and Luis Patiño, who should continue to ascend the pecking order until they are the Rays’ second and third starters, respectively. Which will then push some starters to the pen to replenish that portion of the team. This team is built to keep on rocking, it was always only a question of how well they would start out with so many rickety veterans in the rotation to begin the season.

Connolly (Orioles): Shockingly, they’ll be pretty bad, with the occasional glimmer of hope mixed in. And there should be more prospects getting extended looks as we get closer to July and August. But the future core, catcher Adley Rutschman, infielder Gunnar Henderson and starters DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez, are at Double A or below. None is expected to be in the majors this year. So the next 60 games will be more of the same, but hopefully, for the sake of the beleaguered fan base, the Orioles will be a little more entertaining on the field.

McGrath (Blue Jays): The Blue Jays have had a tough schedule and paired with some injuries to key figures, their best performance is still likely to come. Getting Springer into the lineup will be a huge second-half boost. They need to get through this tough part of their schedule in the immediate, with the White Sox and Red Sox on the road then the Yankees at home (in Buffalo, which will likely feel like a home series for the Yankees). But then their schedule finally starts to get easier, in theory, with series against the Orioles, Marlins and Mariners to close out June. If the Blue Jays stay in the hunt, the trade deadline should bring some more roster reinforcements.

Adler (Yankees): I’d say the next 30 days — if that — are make-or-break for the Yankees. They have said repeatedly over most of the last two months that they will “turn the corner,” but it’s unclear what gives them the confidence in that right now. Giancarlo Stanton is still trying to settle back in after an IL stint and Luke Voit may be back by the beginning of July, but theoretically, they already have enough talented hitters to perform better. If the Yankees get hot in that span, it feels like they could easily take off and be unstoppable — again, they have talent — but if they continue to roll out a slow, often sloppy offensive offering, you’d think they’d have to consider big changes in July. Will August become a month in which they’re sprinting for the division or just going through the motions?

Lastly, predict the final AL East standings, and explain your thinking.

Jennings (Red Sox): The Rays’ young pitching is going to be a problem for everyone in the second half, and while my initial instinct was to predict the Yankees in second place — their offense just has to come around, doesn’t it? — it was harder to feel that way after watching them this weekend when the Red Sox looked like the better team.

1. Rays
2. Red Sox
3. Yankees
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles

Sarris (Rays): Here comes the parade of top prospects in Tampa, which already has the best record in the American League — it’s only going to get crazier, though, as the Red Sox possibly regress, the baby birds in blue get some pitching, and the Yankees start to score (watch this division produce both wild cards and one of the closest runners-up).

1. Rays
2. Yankees
3. Blue Jays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles

Connolly (Orioles): I was on the Yankees to start 2021, and I’ll keep that going, especially since there should be some pressure on GM Brian Cashman to make this club better in July. I just don’t believe in Boston’s pitching for 162 games, so I think the Rays and Jays will finish ahead of them, while the Orioles continue to play in the AL East.

1. Yankees
2. Rays
3. Blue Jays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles

McGrath (Blue Jays): The Yankees have been so confounding and everyone keeps saying the offence will figure it out … but will they? The Blue Jays should get better, not worse, as the season continues and the Rays are for real. The Red Sox are here to spoil someone’s fall and I think it’s going to be the Yankees.

1. Rays
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Yankees
5. Orioles

Adler (Yankees): I would not be surprised if the Yankees finished in any of the first four spots in the division. First place? Sure. Runner-up? OK. Third place and battling for a wild-card spot? Makes sense. Fourth place? Yikes, but I guess.

Of the other teams, I think the Rays are the strongest, the Red Sox are behind them, the Blue Jays are still a bit of a little brother in the division, and the Orioles are just happy to be included.

(Top Photo of Tampa’s Mike Zunino scoring in front of New York’s Gerrit Cole: Adam Hunger / Getty Images)